It’s been less than a month now since Arsene Wenger fatefully said how ‘the first trophy (for Arsenal) is to finish in the top four’. This was on the back of a disappointing week in which we were knocked out of FA Cup against Sunderland, and put to the sword during our Champions League first leg in Milan.
The reaction to the quote was mixed, with enviable frustration that we were now, once again, entering the business period of the Premier League season with no realistic possibility of ending our seven year barren run without a major trophy to celebrate. However, it also highlighted the obvious. That despite the glory associated with winning the likes of the FA Cup, the real financial success a club can achieve in this day and age, aside from winning the league itself, is to ensure qualification for the premier European club competition.
Unfortunately in recent years it’s been the only success we’ve known. But it’s a success nonetheless, and even though we’re all so desperate to win a trophy, ANY trophy, ensuring Champions League qualification is of the upmost importance. This year, as much as any other.
And when Wenger gave that quote shortly after our FA Cup defeat to Sunderland, you’d be forgiven as an Arsenal fan for wanting to take 4th place, should it have been offered to us at that point. Even in my previous blog, I said I would probably still take 4th place if it were offered to us then after the Liverpool match. Such is the importance of finishing there.
But something has happened in the past couple of weeks that has altered the height of expectation we now have at our club.
Just 35 minutes into the North London derby on Sunday 26th February, Sp*rs were leading 2-0 and seemingly heading comfortably towards a 13 point cushion over us in the League. And it would appear that 3rd place in the division was all but wrapped up for them. But we were having none of that.
Bacary Sagna’s ‘I’ve had enough of this Tottnum bullshit’ attitude was just the beginning, as he clawed us back into the game. And with an impeccable performance from then onwards we came back to beat Sp*rs 5-2. It was beautiful.
Follow this on with a hard fought 2-1 win away at another c**t ridden team named Liverpool, and most recently a storming 3-0 victory over Milan, which although wasn’t quite enough to keep us in the Champions League, it showed we meant business. That on our day, we could batter absolutely anyone.
Luckily for us (and believe me, we’re owed a shit load of luck from this season), our rise to form has coincided with a drop in form for those nearest to us chasing a coveted top four spot.
Sp*rs’ ten point gap (13 if we include their 2-0 lead against us) is now down to just four points, and with a victory against Newcastle United tomorrow night we can close that to just one. Despite their narrow victory yesterday in the c**t-side derby, Chelsea are still manager less, not playing attractive football, and a few days away from themselves being put out of Europe (probably). Liverpool haven’t won since they lifted the Carling Cup two weeks ago, and as they trail us by ten points you have to wonder if they’ve now effectively screwed it. Hell, they should be more worried about who’s coming up behind them (steady now). They’re only six points ahead of Aston Villa, in 15th place. Newcastle are doing very well with what they have, but I don’t honestly expect them to truly take us to the wire on this chase. Beat them tomorrow, and there’s a decent amount of space between us. They also haven’t won in their last three games, including their 5-0 spanking at the shit hole down the road from us.
So while we are winning, the others around us aren’t. Momentum is capital during an end of season run in, and whilst there’s still plenty of games left to be played, you can’t help but think that given our form, then maybe 4th isn’t all we should be aiming for. And given how the season has played out so far, finishing in 3rd, above Sp*rs, would be nothing short of an absolute delight given they’re having their best season ever, and we’re having our worst apparently.
There are other reasons for the importance of targeting 3rd place as well, as finishing in the top three positions in the League guarantees automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages. Rather than having to slug it out in a qualifier against a decent European opposition, also desperately craving that elusive spot in the main draw, and the £25m added revenue that comes with it.
It’s not only good to have that as a guarantee, but it also enables much clearer planning in terms of playing personnel for the season ahead. Last summer is a prime example of how it can go wrong.
It was a monumental fuck up generally in terms of how we managed our transfer dealings. But also, the fact we had no guarantee of Champions League football proper until we beat Udinese with less than a week remaining to do business in August didn’t help. Because the ability to offer Champions League football is often a fundamental bargaining chip when it comes to transfer negotiations, as well as the additional cash you have available which obviously enables further use in the transfer market, should you wish to of course.
I’m sure a lot of the business we did we would have done regardless, but the late ‘panic’-like way in which we handled the activity was, at large, due to the wait to see exactly what finances we had to play with. £25m is a lot of money for players and wages. Obviously the fact that Cesc and Samir were both being horrible little twats didn’t help, but that’s a story that isn’t relevant to this piece.
At least we appear to be putting that right this year, with the rumoured signing of Lukas Podolski seemingly getting closer and closer. Although we won’t know for sure until it’s 100%. That’s Arsene’s way. But it’s good to see the club going for him early. Beat the competition, especially ahead of Euro 2012 whereby his stock could go up considerably if Germany have a decent run in which Podolski is involved. Which isn’t impossible to imagine.
You learn the most in life from your own mistakes. Last summer we made a big one, so it’s good to see the club are trying to get it right this year. It’s going to be an interesting summer.
But before I get too carried away talking up the summer, the angle of this blog is to actually persuade the opposite. As there’s a lot still to be done before we can truly plan ahead for next season.
I’ve mentioned the importance of player bargaining associated with Champions League football, but the point I want to end on is by mentioning the commercial aspect too.
It’s well documented that Arsenal have several commercial contracts up for renewal in 2014, including our main shirt sponsors Emirates, and kit suppliers Nike.
We’ve been left quite far behind in this area compared to our rivals, all of who far exceed us in terms of commercial revenue. Even Sp*rs make more than us out of shirt/kit sponsorship. That’s poor for a club of our stature.
But the fact is that if we can’t offer Champions League football as a club, it will (probably) restrict the level of sponsors we can attract. I say probably, as the likes of Sp*rs and Liverpool have still done very well considering their lack of participation in the competition in recent years. We might do OK out of it anyway. We can’t do any worse than now, surely.
However we want to be able to say to prospective sponsors, ‘Hey, we’re Arsenal, we’ve been playing in the Champions League for 16 years in a row now’ once 2014 comes along. That would put us in a fantastically strong position in which to sell ourselves commercially, that in turn would aid our finances by providing considerably more via commercial revenue.
Something to think about. And another reason why making the Champions League this year is so bloody important. This part isn’t specific for the 3rd/4th debate, granted. But the point is that even though we must aim for 3rd now, 4th spot isn’t guaranteed. And there will be many consequences should we not even get that.
So 3rd place is the new trophy to aim for. You don’t always win every trophy you go for though, however this time the runners up medal (4th spot) isn’t a disastrous alternative. Anything lower, and it is.
Big players have contracts we need to renew this summer (RVP, Theo, Song). Securing Champions League football is just as important in terms of securing those three, as it is attracting new players, and even attracting better sponsors.
3rd place is the target, 4th place is the minimum. Anything less, and well, we can all expect another torrid summer.
But let’s worry about that when it comes around. Starting tomorrow night, we have 11 games left. There’ll be plenty of twists and turns a long the way, but the one thing that will remain constant between now and the end of the season for sure, is that 11 blokes will turn up to play in a shirt with the Arsenal crest on it each game. It reads ‘Forward’. Let’s keep on moving that way…
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