Paper Over the Cracks

ARSENAL 3 – ASTON VILLA 2

Phew.

It’s safe to say that January has been a pretty shit month for us Gooners. Zero points out of nine in the League, and only a shaky 1-0 win over Leeds United in the 3^rd Round of the FA Cup to really shout about before today. A set back for Jack Wilshere in his return from injury, and no good news about Kieran Gibbs or Abou Diaby either.

It was safe to say that anyone could be forgiven for being a little bit pessimistic today, ahead of our 4^th Round FA Cup tie at home to Aston Villa. Although low morale was given a slight boost pre-match, due to the return to the squad for Bacary Sagna and Mikel Arteta, both of whom where on the bench.

After a good start to the game, it appeared that this time we might actually get it right. Thomas Vermaelen forced an excellent save from Shay Given with a ripper from 30 yards, and Theo Walcott couldn’t make the most out of a decent position inside the Villa box after losing his feet following a despairing tackle from Carlos Cuellar.

It was standard Arsenal. Dominating possession, and getting into good areas of the pitch. But failing with the end product when it mattered most. And we all know what this usually results in: conceding.

Per Mertesacker has been exceptionally solid for the past couple of games. However he was caught wondering, allowing a hole in the Arsenal defence, and Laurent Koscielny covered to put the ball out for a corner. From which, Richard Dunne headed home after he rose highest above a couple of Arsenal defenders.

1-0  to Villa. Against the run of play. But same old same old for The Arsenal.

We were then back at it. Pressing, asking questions, but not really doing anything to truly test Given in the Aston Villa goal. And just as half time was approaching, we found ourselves two down.

Credit where it’s due, this was actually a pretty decent goal from Villa. They counter attacked with pace and purpose, and Darren Bent got in behind the Arsenal defence to force a save from Lucasz Fabianski. Unfortunately, Bent was able to get on to the follow up, and slid the ball home from a tight angle. It was a great finish, and a damning blow to Arsenal, as, despite being the better side in the first half, we found ourselves two goals down at the interval.

I don’t really know what happened at half time. I have no eyes or ears inside the Arsenal dressing room. All I can talk about is what I saw on twitter. And it wasn’t pretty. Cries of ‘Wenger Out’ were circulating the loudest. The usual jargon followed; shit squad, shit coaches, shit everything. It was horrible to see.

I was critical at half time, sure. I wasn’t happy with our defence, who were completely to blame for both conceded goals. I wasn’t happy with Fabianski, for his eccentric behaviour, and terrible distribution. I was impressed with our boys going forward. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was extremely brigh. Tomas Rosicky was dictating the flow of the midfield, with Aaron Ramsey also impressive. Even Theo Walcott, who wasn’t at his brilliant best, was showing more effort than usual.

I’m not going to get drawn into the half time boos as the players came off the pitch. If I were to start writing about whether they are right or wrong, this essay like blog would turn into a novel. I don’t agree with them, and that’s my opinion. Others are welcome to theirs. End.

My final tweet before the second half was a simple one. We had 45 minutes to salvage our last real shot at winning a trophy this season.

And boy did we.

It took less than ten minutes for Arsenal to claw the first goal back. Dunne, already on a yellow card, brought down Ramsey as the Welshman weaved his way into the area. A clear penalty, and probably the right decision to keep the Irishman on the field too. Robin van Persie sent Given the wrong way, and suddenly we were back in the game.

2-0 is a dangerous score line. Time and time again, teams who have had a two-goal lead have seen this abruptly overturned. The most notable one that sticks in my mind, is when we surrendered a two goal lead at home to Sp*rs last season, to lose 3-2. It’s dangerous because football is all about momentum. You’re two nil down, get a goal back, and suddenly it’s all to play for. You have the momentum, it’s your fans singing, and it’s you that has the belief. Score again, and it’s all square, and the momentum is even more in your favour. You get the rest..

We then found ourselves all square, with the little bit of luck that we’ve been longing for, for over a month. Walcott stepped it up a notch in the second half, and skinned Stephen Warnock to the by-line. His attempted cross was parried by Given, and Alan Hutton’s attempted clearance then cannoned into Walcott and into the net.

When was the last time we had some luck like that? Not for a while, that’s for sure.

From here, there was only one winner. Aston Villa still occasionally posed a threat going forward, but the momentum was all with Arsenal. And we didn’t have to wait long for the decisive moment either.

Koscielny surged forward with exceptional skill and pace, and was brought down by Darren Bent clumsily inside the box. Definite penalty. Given anticipated a repeat from RVP’s first penalty, and dove low to his right. But the Dutchman drove the penalty high to the keepers left, and preceded to celebrate with Thierry Henry and others on the touchline.

We held on. It wasn’t convincing till the end, but we did it. Arteta and Sagna were both introduced, with the former especially shoring up the middle of the park, and dictating the play with composure and stability.

It was great to see Sagna return too. As I’ve mentioned before, I have no doubt his return will bring the very best out of Walcott again. We need to be patient with Sagna, not expect too much too soon, and hope he stays injury free to the end of the season. A lot may ride on it.

Thierry Henry also eventually made it onto the field, and the full time whistle finally arrived. It was a welcome relief, a much-needed win, and a pleasant end to what has been an exceptionally poor month.

ANALYSIS

It really was a tale of two halves. At half time we were staring down the barrel of only having 4^th place in the League left to realistically chase. We all want a good Champions League run, but surely not even the most optimistic Arsenal fan will think we genuinely have a chance to win it.

We have to credit the team. For all their faults of late, they all came out fighting in the second half and played for the badge with pride and passion. Which is exactly what we’ve been crying out for recently.

The Ox was again fantastic. What I love about him is that he is fearless. He gets the ball, and he runs. Walcott often gets the ball, makes a couple of moves, sizes up the situation, and then passes. Neither of them are wrong, but it’s good that they are different. I guess it’s still the innocence that The Ox has. He hasn’t yet seen it all, or truly come up against the best left backs in the world. He believes he can beat anyone. And why shouldn’t he? He’s been excellent in the past two games.

Wenger has been true to his word, and said The Ox would get more game time in 2012. The Chinese have just begun the year of the Dragon. Ours is the year of The Ox. I have no doubt. I only hope too much expectation isn’t placed on him, that he DOESN’T go to the Euros, and that he doesn’t get ahead of himself. He has serious potential, and I can’t think of a better 18-year-old in the country, or in Europe right now.

Another notable mention must go to Rosicky. He really is a good player, despite what many people think. He works hard, puts his body on the line, and more often than not provides fantastic link play from defence to attack. If only he didn’t have those horrible injuries around the time he joined us, who knows how good he could have been. But he’s still very useful, and someone I’d like to hang around for another few years yet.

I don’t know what to say about the defence. In the first half, they were unorganised, lacking leadership and shape, and generally all over the place. Was it the lack of Wojciech Szczesny behind them? I don’t know. They were better in the second half. Hopefully it was just a blip, and a poor 45 minutes only. They are all good players, we know that.

So, where does this leave us? Well it puts us in the 5^th Round of the FA Cup, with a trip to the North East against the winners of the to be replayed tie between Middlesbrough and Sunderland.

The FA Cup is our best chance of silverware this season. Some people don’t like this being said, but it’s a simple fact. A lot of people are also asking what would be better; fourth place on it’s own, or fifth place and the FA Cup. My response? Why can’t we combine the two?

With both Manchester clubs now out of the competition, and with the exception of Liverpool, it is very favourable that a London club will win the oldest cup competition in the world. In my mind, there’s no reason why we can’t win it whilst maintaining decent form in the League. The two can go hand in hand, especially with some of our key players now returning.

But it’s all a big ‘if’ right now, and at 4.50pm today we were as good as out of the competition. We should be grateful we’re still there, and praise the team for turning it around.

It’s true that Arsenal fans are very much split in opinions at the moment, and at half time today this was obvious. The ‘Wenger Out’ brigade were in force lamenting the lack of spending, terrible tactics, and other such deficiencies. The rest of us were talking about the faults of the first half: the players on show. And emphasising the need to turn it around, and the belief that it could happen.

I’m not saying the ‘Wenger Out’ brigade doesn’t want Arsenal to win (well, I hope they don’t). But there are ways you should handle a losing position, and screaming woes about off-field matters really are no way to go about it. Be constructively critical yes, but support your team no matter what. It was incredible how it only took a 15-minute spell to change the mentality of a large proportion of those crying ‘Wenger Out’ at half time.

Yes, there are still problems. Yes, we’re still not where we want to be. And yes, we’re still not totally convincing over the whole 90 minutes on the pitch. Which is why today I’ve gone for the title ‘Paper Over the Cracks’. There are still cracks very much present, but this afternoon’s comeback has enabled us to temporarily let them slide, and enjoy that winning feeling again.

Sometimes it only takes one moment to ignite a decent change in fortune. Will our fighting comeback this afternoon prove to be that moment? Time will tell, but it will for sure be a huge confidence boost to the team and supporters alike.

Winston Churchill said it best when he said the following: “Never, never, never, never give up”.

This afternoon we saw an Arsenal side that refused to give up. Hopefully they, and we supporters, won’t give up on the chase for a Champions League spot, AND the FA Cup. And even progression in this years elite European competition. I know I won’t.

And I end this blog with the same words I’ve ended the previous two, although this time I’m delighted that I can use it on a more positive note:

Arsenal Football Club – proud after victory, loyal after defeat.

Well Arsenal Football Club, tonight I’m bloody proud of you.

More frustration. More pain.

ARSENAL 1 – MANCHESTER UNITED 2

So the frustration mounts; the pain grows. Arsenal’s third league game of 2012 ends in a similar fashion to the previous two. Defeat.

Before the game there was an air of added confidence amongst most Gooners. Our best defender Thomas Vermaelen passed a late fitness test to start at left back. And Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was finally given his first Premier League start, a moment of excitement for the wider football supporting community, let alone those from the red half of North London.

The game started well for Arsenal. The Ox was the bright spark, getting into some good positions, and we dictated possession well for the first ten minutes including a couple of long range efforts, but nothing that really tested Anders Lindegaard in the Man United goal. Then, everything seemed to go flat on our end, and United slowly began to take control of the match.

United’s main threat was coming down their left hand side. Nani utterly embarrassed Johan Djourou in the first half, leading to the Swiss’ substitution at half time, for youngster Nico Yennaris (which was a great decision, by the way). Before that happened, however, we found ourselves 1-0 down.

Ryan Giggs was allowed acres of space on the left, and his cross was met by Antonio Valencia who rose high to head the ball past a helpless Wojciech Szczesny. If truth be told, you could point the finger at a number of our players. Djourou, for not getting tight and allowing Giggs to cross the ball so easily. Vermaelen, for not being strong enough in the air against Valencia. Walcott and The Ox, for not tracking back and supporting Djourou, leaving him isolated.

Or, you could just admit that United were the better team in the first half, and they deserved their lead.

Much like the first, the second half started brightly for Arsenal. Robin van Persie really should have levelled the score, shooting wide from a few yards out after Tomas Rosicky pounced on a Chris Smalling slip. Aaron Ramsey fired a decent strike narrowly over the bar after decent build up play.

The Ox remained the greatest threat for Arsenal going forward, and with 20 minutes to go, he surged forward and provided a through ball that van Persie then drilled into the bottom right corner. It was the sort of counter attack that made Arsenal the best attacking side in Europe back around 2004/05. Laurent Koscielny started the move by dispossessing Rafael inside the Arsenal box. He then released The Ox, and van Persie finished the move off, atoning for his earlier miss.

At the time, we were on top and probably the more likely side to go on and win the game. But despite the renewed hope, the atmosphere inside the Emirates Stadium quickly turned, surrounding Arsene Wenger’s decision to take off The Ox, and bring on the misfiring Andrei Arshavin.

Now, let’s get one thing clear. No one either watching the game at home, or inside the stadium knew what state The Ox was in. No one knew if he had a slight knock, if he wasn’t fit enough to last 90 minutes, or what. But at the time, the decision was met by resounding boos around the stadium. The Ox was by far our most promising player going forward. Coming off was between him, and Walcott, and based on the previous 75 minutes alone, the boss got it wrong.

RVP particularly didn’t take too kindly to it; visibly looked disappointed, probably both because it was The Ox going off, and Arshavin coming on… If our skipper was annoyed about Arshavin’s entrance, he would have been further infuriated by his laziness that ultimately led to Man United’s winner.

With little under ten minutes to go, the Russian failed to get close to Valencia on the right hand side, allowed him to cut inside with ease and the ball eventually fell to Danny Welbeck, who fired home to restore United’s lead.

Chu Young Park was thrown on with five minutes to go, Per Mertesacker moved into the centre forward position, and Arsenal’s frustration grew with both van Persie and Rosicky getting yellow cards. Despite an increase in pressure, we didn’t really create a final chance with which to equalise again.

2-1 it finished. More boos rung around the ground at full time…

ANALYSIS

For the second week running, we’ve been outplayed and beaten by the better side. The only difference is this week there was no refereeing decision that contributed to the defeat. But let’s start with the positives…

I thought Per Mertesacker was excellent at the back. Really dominated, especially in the first half, where he made a number of interceptions, clearances, and generally looked assured and in control. Laurent Koscielny was as solid as ever, and Thomas Vermaelen’s return wasn’t complete, but effective (for the most part) against an inform Valencia. He’ll be much better during his next outing.

Our midfield was where we lost the game. None of our lot had bad games. Tomas Rosicky was probably the better of the three, and spearheaded several promising drives forward. Aaron Ramsey also had decent moments, and both were linking up well with our front three. Alex Song has been guilty of misplaced passes as of late, but his error count was far less today than of recent games.

The problem was, that they were simply over run by the Man United midfield. The United combo seemed far more energetic and organised, and their constant closing down methods really restricted our ability to get the ball forward quick enough to use Theo or The Ox’s pace. We did get into dangerous positions, just when it happened United had seven or eight men back, to our three or four in attack. It’s difficult to make chances, when you are so outnumbered.

The game also hinged on the fact that once again we were without any regular full backs. United had two very good attacking full backs on show, Rafael da Silva, and Man of the Match Patrice Evra. Both got forward exceptionally well, and supported Nani and Valencia in front of them at every opportunity. Arsenal once again had to play two centre backs in the full back positions. There’s no doubting that Djourou and Vermaelen are both decent and capable players, but they have no skill going forward (except for TV5’s odd venture into the unknown). They were today unable to offer The Ox and Walcott support, which made it very easy for United to defend against our pace men, and they could usually commit two players to each of them without leaving themselves exposed at the back.

This is why I’ve been saying for weeks that Bacary Sagna is the most important player returning for Arsenal. Not only is he the best right back in the League, he also brings the best out of Walcott, who uses Sagna’s darting runs forward to exploit space made by the uncertainty created in the defenders decision making. This has been seriously lacking from our game, given we have two centre backs at full back. And also why Theo has been so totally useless as of late, as he’s had no support from behind (there’s a joke there, but I won’t bother).

But back to today. A lot of people have quickly criticised Wenger for the substitution, saying that’s what has lost us the game, and what might cost us 4^th place. I’ll admit, I was baffled by the substitution, but there’s a reason why Arsene Wenger is manager of Arsenal, and I’m not. He knows his players better than I do, and he understands the game better than I do. OK, Arshavin is useless, and today’s episode might end in similar fashion to Emmanuel Eboue’s departure, after he conceded that 100^th minute penalty against Liverpool last season. But if you have someone who has run out of gas, or has a slight cramp, who else do you bring on, if not someone on the bench who plays the same position?

And yes, Arshavin was at fault for the winning goal, but who’s to say that United wouldn’t have won it anyway? They were the better side on the day, and deserved to win. There’s no need to play the blame game. Arshavin is as much as fault as Djourou or Vermaelen were for their first. Or what about RVP missing his sitter? I hate criticising our players, but it’s impossible to lay the blame purely on a substitution. A game of football lasts 90 minutes, and we had plenty of chances to score, and even win the game. But we didn’t. And what about our earlier substitution? Yennaris on for Djourou was a great change, and United weren’t half as dangerous down the left in the second half.

So where does it leave us? Still 5^th. A further point behind Chelsea in 4^th. People (myself included) keep looking ahead, and seeing it as an advantage that we have to host all the other big teams around us. But on today’s performance, you’d be forgiven for not being too optimistic about the visits of any of Man City, Sp*rs, Chelsea or Newcastle.

We’re only five points behind Chelsea, so 4^th place is still very doable. But if Chelsea weren’t having an equally shit season, we’d be really screwed. Sp*rs have some tricky fixtures, and I think we’re all now expecting them to slowly fall back and into a battle with Chelsea, and hopefully ourselves. But we need to win these bloody matches, and pick up points when those around us drop them. Which we just aren’t doing at the moment.

I don’t know what to suggest. I’m always extremely positive about The Arsenal, but I am beginning to run out of excuses. The injuries have killed us, quite frankly. It’s not an excuse, but it’s a huge factor. Take out four full backs and the best player of the previous season from any of the teams around us, and they’d all be struggling. No exceptions. The only positive, is that they are all coming back. And this time in a month, we should have a much stronger team. Hopefully in time for AC Milan and Sp*rs.

Before then, we just have to make do with what we have. Aston Villa in the FA Cup, Bolton and Blackburn are next, and they are all very winnable. We simply have to win those. Confidence is very fragile at the moment, and the team need our support more than ever. You can vent your frustration however you like behind a keyboard, but booing players or booing the team is unacceptable, and makes us all look pathetic. The players, manager and club deserves better than that.

Safe to say that 2012 has been complete bollocks so far. We lost to the Champions today, so all is not lost, and it isn’t as bad as result as the previous two (in the League). But today's result was even more painful, as we could have won it. Much like we could have beaten Sp*rs at Shite Hart Lane, or Citeh at the Etihad. We're having too many "could have won" games at the moment. That's where the frustration is from my point of view, instead of worrying about who Wenger is bringing on with 15 minutes to go.

But things can only get better, and I’ll end this blog with the same words I ended the last one with.

Arsenal Football Club – proud after victory, loyal after defeat.

Hopefully my next one will end on a more positive note…

Stay classy.

Not pretty reading...

SWANSEA 3 – ARSENAL 2

I think the term “must win” game is fast turning into a cliché. Games are often being labelled “must win”, when in reality you could say almost any game is “must win” for either a team chasing the title, or scraping to stay in a Division.

Having said that today was a very important one for Arsenal. Sp*rs dropped points yesterday, so it was a great chance to put some pressure on them, and close the gap on our North London rivals to seven points.

But it wasn’t to be. And that was clear for the best part of 80 minutes, despite Robin van Persie putting Arsenal one-nil up inside five minutes with a well-taken finish on his weaker foot.

Swansea upped the tempo after going behind, and were rewarded with a debatable penalty after Aaron Ramsey was judged to have tripped Swansea’s MOTM Nathan Dyer. Replays show our Welshman was unfortunate, and more lucky himself to avoid injury as Dyer appeared to stamp high on his shin. In real time, it did look like a penalty. Unfortunately Michael Oliver didn’t get the copious amounts of replays we were subject to at half time. He had to act on impulse. Worse decisions have been given against us this season. Still, Scott Sinclair scored from the spot, and we went into the break all square.

We started the second half much like the first. Brightly. But this quickly turned again to disarray, and soon enough we found ourselves behind.

Ramsey got caught in possession in midfield by Joe Allen, who then played in Dyer who finished well after being gifted a large amount of space by the wondering Ignasi Miquel.

This prompted the arrival of Thierry Henry on for the vacant Andrey Arshavin, but it was Theo Walcott who drew Arsenal level shortly after, with a composed finish after being released down the right hand side.

It was a welcomed relief, as I couldn’t see where we were going to get an equaliser from. I was halfway through writing a tweet along the lines of “Get In! Let’s go and win this now!!” when the joy suddenly turned sour, as Swansea scored the winning goal through Danny Graham.

Wojciech Szczesny decided against coming out for a ball that was more than within reach, and the Swansea striker finished well from a tight angle, having been played through via a mixture of a decent pass and a failed Arsenal offside trap.

Arsenal weren’t short of opportunities to grab a late equaliser. Tomas Rosicky and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain were thrown on late, and gung-ho was the message from Arsene Wenger.

Ramsey had a decent header saved, Rosicky a long-range effort drift wide. But the best chance of a leveller fell to our Big Fucking German, Per Mertesacker, who scuffed a shot from a few yards out after it fell to him from a corner.

It wasn’t to be for Arsenal today, that was clear for most of the match. Swansea closed out the final few minutes without a scare. They even added salt to the wound by bringing on Leroy Lita, one of the worst players I’ve ever seen play in the Premier League.

ANALYSIS

The analysis of this one should be simple. The team who played much better football on the day beat us. Swansea deserves a lot of credit for their performance. They passed and moved brilliantly, and took their chances in front of goal. They reminded me of previous Arsenal sides almost. And they battered us today. No hiding from it. Swansea have shown they have real Premier League quality, not only today, and I’m sure they’ll carry on improving. Good luck to them.

On to Arsenal. Well we were terrible. And we can’t complain about the result. Yes the penalty was debatable, but the way Swansea were playing you’d have to assume that they would have got that opening goal one way or another.

Where did it go wrong? I think today showed how important Mikel Arteta is for us. He keeps our midfield ticking over every game, dictates the tempo, and has the ability to sit back and allow others to push forward. No one really took control of our midfield today in his absence. Ramsey had a shocker, and Alex Song was again woeful with his passing. When the midfield doesn’t flow, it’s difficult for the attackers to get going. The lack of Arteta today was huge. We need him back for Man United desperately.

What I also noticed today, more so than usual, is just how much we have suffered without regular full backs playing (without trying to state the bleeding obvious). Ignasi Miquel had a great game I thought. Yes he was miles out of position for Swansea’s second goal, but was otherwise very reliable down the left. Made some great forward runs, and put in some excellent balls that on another day van Persie or another might have been on the end of.

And it was his first ever Premier League start. That’s what we’ve been missing lately. Full backs that can get forward, and support the attacking play. Djourou can’t do it. Vermaelen is able to push forward, but not to the same extent.

This has also been a factor towards Walcott’s poor form lately too. He was at his best earlier this season when he had Bacary Sagna (or even Carl Jenkinson) flanking him on the outside, creating extra space for him to exploit. Now, he has no such support, and he’s suffering. He took his goal well today, but other than that it was more of the same of what we’ve seen lately. Once Sagna is back, I have no doubt he’ll be back to his best.

So for those reasons, I think the return of Gibbs and Sagna are more important to the team than that of Jack Wilshere. A big shout, yes, but we have a decent midfield right now (although not based on today’s performance). How do you think Man City, United or even Sp*rs would cope without ANY regular full backs? They certainly wouldn’t be where they are now.

Injuries aren’t an excuse though, but they are a huge contributing factor. They have killed us, really. People keep crying out for signings, but how are they going to fit into the squad? If we buy a left back for £8m, what happens to him when Gibbs and Andre Santos are back? If we sign another midfielder, what happens when Wilshere, Abou Diaby and Francis Coquelin are back? It’s very easy to say, “Spend some fucking money” when things are going bad, but there’s no point spending unnecessarily to replace players that are injured. Think squad space, think wages. And at full strength we are very hard to beat. This isn’t a computer game, and signing players isn’t as simple as people think. I covered this in my last blog, so I won’t go into more detail on this.

Anyway, back to today. We lacked character, we lacked belief, no one stepped up to put their stamp on the game, no one led by example (that’s not just a dig at RVP, we need more than one leader on the pitch). There was little focus, few ideas, and almost a lack of interest at times.

There, I said it. That hurts a lot, but it’s true. So what next?

Oh, it’s Manchester United. Great.

Where does today leave us then? Still fifth. A further point behind Sp*rs. A further three behind Chelsea. It’s not all doom and gloom, and nothing is ever decided in January. But the more points we drop, the harder it’s going to be to convince ourselves we can finish in the top four. We’ve had two Premier League games in 2012, and we’ve lost them both, throwing away a lead in the process against mid/lower table clubs.

There’s definite reason for concern, but it isn’t over yet. Twitter is a brilliant place when things are going well, but horrible when they aren’t. It’s again been difficult to stomach all the negative, argumentative and dismissive comments that have been floating around for the past couple of hours. There’s still a long way to go, and the team need our support now more than ever. Key players are coming back, and we have some big matches at home in the next month. Win them, and we’re right back in it.

I saw a tweet earlier that summed it up perfectly. Arsenal FC – Proud after victory, loyal after defeat.

Remember these words. I doubt today will be the last time we hear them this season..

Why we Arsenal fans shouldn't get excited this January transfer window

January.

Traditionally known for the shopping sales, the resolutions, and the cold. However in the football world, it’s know as being the half-way point of the season, and the final opportunity to significantly add to your squad before the end of season push.

As we all know, any transfer window always makes interesting following. Players from all corners of the planet are linked to all kinds of clubs. Fans become experts on everyone. “In The Knows” become prominent amongst those stupid enough to listen to them. The month is total mayhem from start to finish, and usually results in disappointment.

From an Arsenal perspective, the rumour mill is especially in over-drive. Substantial injuries, miss-firing forwards, and a bucket load of cash to spend. I, however, am not expecting much, if any, future serious incomings or outgoings for us this month. This will disappoint a lot of people, but there are logical ways of explaining this, which I’m going to outline below.

So this is why we Arsenal fans shouldn’t expect much this January.

Squad Restrictions

I’m going to start this off with the most damning reason for why we won’t sign any more players.

According to Premier League rules, every squad has to submit up to a 25-man playing squad for league games, which must include no more than 17 ‘non-home grown players’, allowing sufficient space for those who were born or raised in the UK.

Arsenal are currently already at their max for the amount of ‘non-home grown’ players we have registered in our squad. This means that any ‘non-home grown’ player we bring in, would have to replace a member of the currently registered squad, resulting in them being unavailable for league games for the rest of the season.

We already have to remove one player to make space for Thierry Henry, who completed his two-month loan deal to return to Arsenal on Friday – just in time to be available for the FA Cup 3^rd Round tie against Leeds on Monday. So one player is already going to miss out in order to fill the spot for Henry. Who will it be?

Well you’d assume the players likely to be removed, are the likes of Manuel Almunia, Sebastian Squillaci, Marouane Chamakh, Chu Young Park, or Abou Diaby.

Taking out Almunia would mean we only have two goalkeepers left to play, as Vito Mannone is now out on loan again at Hull for the rest of the season. And with Lukasz Fabianksi presently injured that would put an awful lot of pressure on current number one Wojciech Szczesny. If he were to get injured too, we’d need to promote either Damian Martinez, or James Shea. Who you are unlikely to have heard of unless you follow our Reserves.

Similarly in defence, Squillaci might be dreadful, but he’s a reserve defender who given our current injury predicaments, is actually more use than most would think. People might say, ‘get rid of him and bring in someone better’, but realistically no-one better will be happy being a bit part player like Squillaci is.

In terms of midfield and attack, the ones all listed above are either injured, or off form. And they are all squad players. I think the player most likely to be removed to make way for Henry, is Park. Limited opportunities so far, and has been unconvincing when he has played. The others all do have a part to play in this year’s squad, so simply leaving them out isn’t an option. The only way you could say they could be sacrificed is if we sell them.

But as I’m about to explain, that probably won’t happen either.

We won’t sell any players

Since January 2007, the only significant player we’ve sold in a January transfer window is Lass Diarra, to Portsmouth at the beginning of 2008, for £5.5m. Other than that, it’s seemingly never been a time where Arsene Wenger has looked to permanently offload players, with the majority of outgoings being younger players moved to lower leagued clubs on loan.

So should we honestly expect him to change that now? Well, no.

Again, the players who have been linked with moves away, are mainly those I’ve listed above in the Squad Restrictions section. As explained there, we need Almunia as GK cover, and Squillaci for defensive cover. Chamakh has already said he wants to stay, and re-evaluate his situation in the summer (when I’d expect him to leave). Plus, he’s heading off to the African Cup of Nations (CAN) on Tuesday; making any business for him unlikely (I’ll touch more on this later).

Park is another name murmured when Gooners discuss those likely to go. But this would be unfair, as he was only signed in the summer, provides a good commercial boost in the Far East, and has yet to really get a chance to prove himself. He could be another to leave in the summer possibly, but I’d like to see him get some game time first (assuming he isn’t axed in the squad for Henry).

Andrei Arshavin is the other one often linked to a move away, with a big money move to Russia seen as a possibility. I wouldn’t expect this to happen YET. True, Arshavin’s form is all over the place. But I would be uneasy shipping out a player with as much talent as Arshavin this month. He is capable of great things, and has shown lately when coming on that he does still have the potential to provide for the club.

As with any of these players, it’s not as simple as “get rid of them”. For any outgoing player, an incoming one must be lined up.

And that moves me swiftly on to why it’ll be very difficult to attract any big players in the next few weeks.

The Damage of Euro 2012 and African Cup of Nations

It’s another year of significant International tournaments in the world of football. This month, the CAN kicks off. June sees the beginning of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. You can also throw in the Olympics, although that doesn’t have as much of an impact as the other two, when it comes to January transfer dealings.

Arsenal have been linked to a decent amount of fine players currently residing in Europe. To name a few; Lukas Podolski (Koln), Marco Reus (now signed for Dortmund), Mario Gotze (Dortmund), and Moussa Sow (Lille). And what do these players all have in common? They’ll be representing their countries at one of the tournaments listed above this year.

They are also important players and key starters at their current clubs. The common theme we are seeing from big players around Europe linked with a move this month, is their reluctance to do so as it may risk their place in their respective International squads. Easy enough to understand. If, for example, Podolski joined Arsenal, and didn’t get the regular starts he’s getting now at Koln, he wouldn’t be on Joachim Low’s radar as much as another German striker, who is playing regularly and scoring. It appears that this is a risk that players aren’t willing to take now. And I totally understand and agree with it.

Similarly we have the CAN. For a transfer to occur, it requires serious thought and decision making by the player. Especially if it’s a move abroad. All key African players are playing in their biggest tournament this month. So how realistic is it to expect any of them to balance that against a move? Let alone be available to sign, and be involved in personal terms. That’s why Chamakh won’t leave Arsenal, and why we won’t sign someone like Sow. Yet.

Speaking of personal terms, that brings me to my next reason why we shouldn’t expect much this January.

Wages

The Arsenal wage structure is a never-ending debate amongst fans. One school of thought suggests it’s inexcusable to give players like Bendtner, Denilson, Diaby and other such players the wages they get (over £40k per week). Others suggest that it is a good policy to pay younger players more, giving them a confidence boost, and making it harder for other clubs to come in and poach them.

I’m not here to start up this debate again, but our wage structure is definitely a reason why we shouldn’t expect much this January.

Wages at Arsenal are already at an all time high. Summer signing Mikel Arteta gracefully agreed to a £10k per week pay cut, as we were unwilling to match the £80k that Everton paid him. That goes some way to suggest how important saving £10k might be.

We already have Henry coming back for almost two months, on a £70k per week wage. Sounds a lot, but in fact it’s only going to amass to just under £500k in total once his six-week stint is over. Very affordable for a super club like Arsenal given today’s revenues.

But the point remains the same – there isn’t a huge amount of space on the wage bill to play with. This will be the case until we can offload the likes of Chamakh, Arshavin, Squillaci, Almunia and co. And as I have mentioned above, we are unlikely to do so before the summer.

We just can’t justify bringing in a Podolski type player yet, on an additional £80k per week, given what we currently have. Add to this the fact that both Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie are (hopefully) to get offered new and improved deals, set to be a good amount more than what we are currently on.

Summary

I believe the points I’ve outlined above can be used to quash any Arsenal transfer rumour you read, before you even look at the player himself, his current club, or availability.

The only likely addition I can see this month (after Henry) is an emergency full back on loan, which Wenger has already admitted is a possibility. It would help if we could bring in an English based player, who wouldn’t have to go in the ‘non-home grown’ category for squad registration. That’s why we’ve been linked to Wayne Bridge, and more recently Kieran Richardson.

Bridge is unlikely because of his ridiculous high wages, which Arsenal won’t cover. And the fact he’s a very ordinary player, and quite frankly I’d rather have Francis Coquelin or Ignasi Miquel cover than that ex-scum lump of shite. I still haven’t forgiven him for that Champions League night in 2004.

Richardson would be adequate for a two-month loan. Wouldn’t be massive wages, and could cover at left back or left wing (with Gervinho also at CAN). But Sunderland insists no contact has been made, and I get the impression they are only willing to sell.

This ends the serious part of my blog, but I want to make a final point, which will come across as a bit of a rant. So feel free to either stop here. Or continue at your own peril.

Speculation

The epitome of a transfer window is speculation. We all do it. Speculate, reference, and conclude. Before I have a go, I will admit that I did a speculation blog myself a few weeks ago, on possible striker targets. On reflection, it was a ridiculous blog. I actually wrote that there was only a 40% chance we’d sign Henry, yet Podolski was at 70%. I was in dreamland, and I got it wrong. We all do. I also stated that Reus would be a 60% chance of signing. He’s now signed a pre-contract for someone else.

But this is kind of my point. How often do players that we speculate on, actually sign? The percentage must be less than 10%. There are several things that annoy me on speculation: the excitement that follows it (no matter how ridiculous it originally is), how quickly a source becomes “credible”, even though it’s absolute shite, and suddenly how the majority of tweeters become “experts” on these players that no-one has previously ever heard of.

I think Football Manager is largely to blame for this. Too many times I’ve seen people seriously recommend players because of ‘how good they are in 2015 on FM’. Recently, I actually called someone out on twitter after a comment they made, and told them they’d make a terrible manager. The response? No word of a lie, “well I’m not on FM”. Wow. I won’t name and shame them, but if you read this, you know who you are. And you’re ridiculous.

Just because you take Luton to the Champions League on Football Manager inside 5 seasons doesn’t make you any kind of expert. It’s a piss easy game, made to be easy so you’ll play it, recommend it, talk about it and win things regularly on it. I mean, if it was difficult and you had to seriously work to take Bolton to the title, or Wycombe to promotion, what would be the point? People would get frustrated, and give up. But as it happens, it isn’t hard. It’s easy.

And I think it’s the same kind of people who yesterday suddenly became experts on Matias Suarez, after his link to Arsenal. I’ll admit, I researched him, saw his stats and was impressed. But that doesn’t make me an expert, or put me in any kind of position to say if he’ll be a good signing for Arsenal. But I tweeted saying he was linked by a “credible source”, because people I follow who I believe to be “credible” claimed it as “credible”. See what I’m getting at? It’s a never-ending trail of confusion, and speculation. No one really knows what’s going on.

There will always be speculation. That’s the role of the media during months such as these. It’s about knowing who to trust, and who to listen to. If FootyBunker say we’ve made a bid for Lionel Messi, as exciting as that sounds, it’s obviously total bollocks. If Matt Law at the Daily Express says we’ve finally signed Thierry Henry, believe it (although you are free to laugh at him when he says we’ve tapped him up).

Basically, football is all about debate, and twitter gives us a fantastic medium of which to do this. But shitty football sites like FootyBunker make things up and twist quotes purely to get extra clicks on their page, and followers to their feeds. Papers do it too to get more people to buy the copy. It’s not illegal; it’s the way they work. Just don’t take any of it as gospel.

Now, I’m not having a go at anyone who speculates. If you’re getting offended, then I apologise, as that’s not my intent. It’s always interesting to see who we are linked to, and to think of how they’ll fit into our colours. And as I said, we all do it. All I’m saying is don’t be ridiculous, think about what you are reading, and use the logic I have based this blog around to decipher whether or not it’s realistic that a player might sign. Basically, don’t prance around twitter bigging up these links to players that aren’t going to sign, based on what you know from a computer game.

Some people get their kicks out of reading names we are linked to, and talking to their mates about it. Personally, I get my kicks out of seeing Thierry Henry with his socks rolled over his knees (let’s face it, anyone who doesn’t is lying).

Ultimately, it’s only official when it’s on Arsenal.com. Until then, keep speculating if you wish. Who knows, I might be totally wrong about everything I’ve written above. But I doubt I am, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend getting your hopes up for players coming in this January. That doesn't mean you have to stop dreaming, though...