Why we Arsenal fans shouldn't get excited this January transfer window

January.

Traditionally known for the shopping sales, the resolutions, and the cold. However in the football world, it’s know as being the half-way point of the season, and the final opportunity to significantly add to your squad before the end of season push.

As we all know, any transfer window always makes interesting following. Players from all corners of the planet are linked to all kinds of clubs. Fans become experts on everyone. “In The Knows” become prominent amongst those stupid enough to listen to them. The month is total mayhem from start to finish, and usually results in disappointment.

From an Arsenal perspective, the rumour mill is especially in over-drive. Substantial injuries, miss-firing forwards, and a bucket load of cash to spend. I, however, am not expecting much, if any, future serious incomings or outgoings for us this month. This will disappoint a lot of people, but there are logical ways of explaining this, which I’m going to outline below.

So this is why we Arsenal fans shouldn’t expect much this January.

Squad Restrictions

I’m going to start this off with the most damning reason for why we won’t sign any more players.

According to Premier League rules, every squad has to submit up to a 25-man playing squad for league games, which must include no more than 17 ‘non-home grown players’, allowing sufficient space for those who were born or raised in the UK.

Arsenal are currently already at their max for the amount of ‘non-home grown’ players we have registered in our squad. This means that any ‘non-home grown’ player we bring in, would have to replace a member of the currently registered squad, resulting in them being unavailable for league games for the rest of the season.

We already have to remove one player to make space for Thierry Henry, who completed his two-month loan deal to return to Arsenal on Friday – just in time to be available for the FA Cup 3^rd Round tie against Leeds on Monday. So one player is already going to miss out in order to fill the spot for Henry. Who will it be?

Well you’d assume the players likely to be removed, are the likes of Manuel Almunia, Sebastian Squillaci, Marouane Chamakh, Chu Young Park, or Abou Diaby.

Taking out Almunia would mean we only have two goalkeepers left to play, as Vito Mannone is now out on loan again at Hull for the rest of the season. And with Lukasz Fabianksi presently injured that would put an awful lot of pressure on current number one Wojciech Szczesny. If he were to get injured too, we’d need to promote either Damian Martinez, or James Shea. Who you are unlikely to have heard of unless you follow our Reserves.

Similarly in defence, Squillaci might be dreadful, but he’s a reserve defender who given our current injury predicaments, is actually more use than most would think. People might say, ‘get rid of him and bring in someone better’, but realistically no-one better will be happy being a bit part player like Squillaci is.

In terms of midfield and attack, the ones all listed above are either injured, or off form. And they are all squad players. I think the player most likely to be removed to make way for Henry, is Park. Limited opportunities so far, and has been unconvincing when he has played. The others all do have a part to play in this year’s squad, so simply leaving them out isn’t an option. The only way you could say they could be sacrificed is if we sell them.

But as I’m about to explain, that probably won’t happen either.

We won’t sell any players

Since January 2007, the only significant player we’ve sold in a January transfer window is Lass Diarra, to Portsmouth at the beginning of 2008, for £5.5m. Other than that, it’s seemingly never been a time where Arsene Wenger has looked to permanently offload players, with the majority of outgoings being younger players moved to lower leagued clubs on loan.

So should we honestly expect him to change that now? Well, no.

Again, the players who have been linked with moves away, are mainly those I’ve listed above in the Squad Restrictions section. As explained there, we need Almunia as GK cover, and Squillaci for defensive cover. Chamakh has already said he wants to stay, and re-evaluate his situation in the summer (when I’d expect him to leave). Plus, he’s heading off to the African Cup of Nations (CAN) on Tuesday; making any business for him unlikely (I’ll touch more on this later).

Park is another name murmured when Gooners discuss those likely to go. But this would be unfair, as he was only signed in the summer, provides a good commercial boost in the Far East, and has yet to really get a chance to prove himself. He could be another to leave in the summer possibly, but I’d like to see him get some game time first (assuming he isn’t axed in the squad for Henry).

Andrei Arshavin is the other one often linked to a move away, with a big money move to Russia seen as a possibility. I wouldn’t expect this to happen YET. True, Arshavin’s form is all over the place. But I would be uneasy shipping out a player with as much talent as Arshavin this month. He is capable of great things, and has shown lately when coming on that he does still have the potential to provide for the club.

As with any of these players, it’s not as simple as “get rid of them”. For any outgoing player, an incoming one must be lined up.

And that moves me swiftly on to why it’ll be very difficult to attract any big players in the next few weeks.

The Damage of Euro 2012 and African Cup of Nations

It’s another year of significant International tournaments in the world of football. This month, the CAN kicks off. June sees the beginning of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. You can also throw in the Olympics, although that doesn’t have as much of an impact as the other two, when it comes to January transfer dealings.

Arsenal have been linked to a decent amount of fine players currently residing in Europe. To name a few; Lukas Podolski (Koln), Marco Reus (now signed for Dortmund), Mario Gotze (Dortmund), and Moussa Sow (Lille). And what do these players all have in common? They’ll be representing their countries at one of the tournaments listed above this year.

They are also important players and key starters at their current clubs. The common theme we are seeing from big players around Europe linked with a move this month, is their reluctance to do so as it may risk their place in their respective International squads. Easy enough to understand. If, for example, Podolski joined Arsenal, and didn’t get the regular starts he’s getting now at Koln, he wouldn’t be on Joachim Low’s radar as much as another German striker, who is playing regularly and scoring. It appears that this is a risk that players aren’t willing to take now. And I totally understand and agree with it.

Similarly we have the CAN. For a transfer to occur, it requires serious thought and decision making by the player. Especially if it’s a move abroad. All key African players are playing in their biggest tournament this month. So how realistic is it to expect any of them to balance that against a move? Let alone be available to sign, and be involved in personal terms. That’s why Chamakh won’t leave Arsenal, and why we won’t sign someone like Sow. Yet.

Speaking of personal terms, that brings me to my next reason why we shouldn’t expect much this January.

Wages

The Arsenal wage structure is a never-ending debate amongst fans. One school of thought suggests it’s inexcusable to give players like Bendtner, Denilson, Diaby and other such players the wages they get (over £40k per week). Others suggest that it is a good policy to pay younger players more, giving them a confidence boost, and making it harder for other clubs to come in and poach them.

I’m not here to start up this debate again, but our wage structure is definitely a reason why we shouldn’t expect much this January.

Wages at Arsenal are already at an all time high. Summer signing Mikel Arteta gracefully agreed to a £10k per week pay cut, as we were unwilling to match the £80k that Everton paid him. That goes some way to suggest how important saving £10k might be.

We already have Henry coming back for almost two months, on a £70k per week wage. Sounds a lot, but in fact it’s only going to amass to just under £500k in total once his six-week stint is over. Very affordable for a super club like Arsenal given today’s revenues.

But the point remains the same – there isn’t a huge amount of space on the wage bill to play with. This will be the case until we can offload the likes of Chamakh, Arshavin, Squillaci, Almunia and co. And as I have mentioned above, we are unlikely to do so before the summer.

We just can’t justify bringing in a Podolski type player yet, on an additional £80k per week, given what we currently have. Add to this the fact that both Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie are (hopefully) to get offered new and improved deals, set to be a good amount more than what we are currently on.

Summary

I believe the points I’ve outlined above can be used to quash any Arsenal transfer rumour you read, before you even look at the player himself, his current club, or availability.

The only likely addition I can see this month (after Henry) is an emergency full back on loan, which Wenger has already admitted is a possibility. It would help if we could bring in an English based player, who wouldn’t have to go in the ‘non-home grown’ category for squad registration. That’s why we’ve been linked to Wayne Bridge, and more recently Kieran Richardson.

Bridge is unlikely because of his ridiculous high wages, which Arsenal won’t cover. And the fact he’s a very ordinary player, and quite frankly I’d rather have Francis Coquelin or Ignasi Miquel cover than that ex-scum lump of shite. I still haven’t forgiven him for that Champions League night in 2004.

Richardson would be adequate for a two-month loan. Wouldn’t be massive wages, and could cover at left back or left wing (with Gervinho also at CAN). But Sunderland insists no contact has been made, and I get the impression they are only willing to sell.

This ends the serious part of my blog, but I want to make a final point, which will come across as a bit of a rant. So feel free to either stop here. Or continue at your own peril.

Speculation

The epitome of a transfer window is speculation. We all do it. Speculate, reference, and conclude. Before I have a go, I will admit that I did a speculation blog myself a few weeks ago, on possible striker targets. On reflection, it was a ridiculous blog. I actually wrote that there was only a 40% chance we’d sign Henry, yet Podolski was at 70%. I was in dreamland, and I got it wrong. We all do. I also stated that Reus would be a 60% chance of signing. He’s now signed a pre-contract for someone else.

But this is kind of my point. How often do players that we speculate on, actually sign? The percentage must be less than 10%. There are several things that annoy me on speculation: the excitement that follows it (no matter how ridiculous it originally is), how quickly a source becomes “credible”, even though it’s absolute shite, and suddenly how the majority of tweeters become “experts” on these players that no-one has previously ever heard of.

I think Football Manager is largely to blame for this. Too many times I’ve seen people seriously recommend players because of ‘how good they are in 2015 on FM’. Recently, I actually called someone out on twitter after a comment they made, and told them they’d make a terrible manager. The response? No word of a lie, “well I’m not on FM”. Wow. I won’t name and shame them, but if you read this, you know who you are. And you’re ridiculous.

Just because you take Luton to the Champions League on Football Manager inside 5 seasons doesn’t make you any kind of expert. It’s a piss easy game, made to be easy so you’ll play it, recommend it, talk about it and win things regularly on it. I mean, if it was difficult and you had to seriously work to take Bolton to the title, or Wycombe to promotion, what would be the point? People would get frustrated, and give up. But as it happens, it isn’t hard. It’s easy.

And I think it’s the same kind of people who yesterday suddenly became experts on Matias Suarez, after his link to Arsenal. I’ll admit, I researched him, saw his stats and was impressed. But that doesn’t make me an expert, or put me in any kind of position to say if he’ll be a good signing for Arsenal. But I tweeted saying he was linked by a “credible source”, because people I follow who I believe to be “credible” claimed it as “credible”. See what I’m getting at? It’s a never-ending trail of confusion, and speculation. No one really knows what’s going on.

There will always be speculation. That’s the role of the media during months such as these. It’s about knowing who to trust, and who to listen to. If FootyBunker say we’ve made a bid for Lionel Messi, as exciting as that sounds, it’s obviously total bollocks. If Matt Law at the Daily Express says we’ve finally signed Thierry Henry, believe it (although you are free to laugh at him when he says we’ve tapped him up).

Basically, football is all about debate, and twitter gives us a fantastic medium of which to do this. But shitty football sites like FootyBunker make things up and twist quotes purely to get extra clicks on their page, and followers to their feeds. Papers do it too to get more people to buy the copy. It’s not illegal; it’s the way they work. Just don’t take any of it as gospel.

Now, I’m not having a go at anyone who speculates. If you’re getting offended, then I apologise, as that’s not my intent. It’s always interesting to see who we are linked to, and to think of how they’ll fit into our colours. And as I said, we all do it. All I’m saying is don’t be ridiculous, think about what you are reading, and use the logic I have based this blog around to decipher whether or not it’s realistic that a player might sign. Basically, don’t prance around twitter bigging up these links to players that aren’t going to sign, based on what you know from a computer game.

Some people get their kicks out of reading names we are linked to, and talking to their mates about it. Personally, I get my kicks out of seeing Thierry Henry with his socks rolled over his knees (let’s face it, anyone who doesn’t is lying).

Ultimately, it’s only official when it’s on Arsenal.com. Until then, keep speculating if you wish. Who knows, I might be totally wrong about everything I’ve written above. But I doubt I am, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend getting your hopes up for players coming in this January. That doesn't mean you have to stop dreaming, though...